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Foreign Exchange Insights and Strategies

  • May 5, 2016

    Mexican Peso Outlook - May 2016

    The Mexican peso has appreciated lately as a result of a rebound in oil prices and market expectations of a Fed that is unlikely to move on rates anytime soon. Although external developments have dominated the market for the last little while, resulting in a stronger MXN, domestic elements are likely to take hold over the coming months. MXN peso is expected to outperform as growth accelerates and the Banxico increases the fondeo rate by another 50bp by the end of 2016. Bias – bullish (stronger MXN

  • May 5, 2016

    British Pound Outlook - May 2016

    The British pound entered May at the upper end of its YTD range supported by a combination of broad-based USD weakness and a shift in sentiment. Although the vote isn’t until mid-June, markets will be paying close attention to “Brexit” opinion polls in the coming month, a leave vote continues to raise material uncertainties. Should the remain camp win the referendum, expect a violent and material move in the GBP to the mid-150 levels against the greenback. Bias – bullish (stronger GBP)

  • May 5, 2016

    Japanese Yen Outlook - May 2016

    The USD/JPY plunged to a fresh multi-year low as entered May last seen in Q4-2014. From a fundamental perspective, interest rate differentials, positioning and sentiment all appear to favour further weakness in the currency in the short term. However, given the extreme strength of the currency, most market analysts expect Kudora to take further action to weaken the currency in the coming months. Bias – bearish (weaker JPY)

  • May 5, 2016

    Euro Outlook - May 2016

    Although the euro has continued to rally well into May and interest rate differentials and general US dollar weakness continue to leave the euro positioned for further strength, upside momentum appears to be limited to 1.15-1.17. Fundamentals in the Eurozone continue to remain weak and long term inflation forecasts remain well under the 2% threshold for the ECB. Furthermore, political risks also suggest downside implications for the currency. Look for the euro to weaken over the coming months. Bias – bearish (weaker EUR)

  • May 5, 2016

    Canadian Dollar Outlook - May 2016

    The Canadian dollar has experienced a wild ride since the beginning of the year and has gone from worst to first in a short three months. Despite the over 2000 basis point run-up since early January as oil, economic data and federal government spending have all surprised to the upside, don’t expect the rally to last much longer. Canadian economic fundamentals remain much weaker than those in the US and oil is unlikely to appreciate much more than current levels leaving the loonie to regain some of its earlier losses. Bias bearish – (weaker CAD)

  • May 5, 2016

    May 2016 - Monthly Currency Outlook

    US dollar weakness has been the dominant theme of the FX markets so far this year. Disappointing economic data coupled with dovish Fed rhetoric has seen the US dollar take a beating over the last three months. However, not all is lost for the greenback. US domestic fundamentals remain strong despite the recent string of lacklustre data and employment continues to track ahead at an impressive clip. Taken together, the Fed is likely to raise interest rates at least once and possibly twice this year, which should see the greenback perform materially better for the remainder of the year.

  • May 5, 2016

    FX Summary Forecast - May 2016

    A one page summary of our two year forecasts of the majors and Canadian crosses

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