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Foreign Exchange Insights and Strategies

  • August 9, 2016

    Mexican Peso Outlook - August 2016

    Despite the surprise 50bps hike by the Banxico, MXN remained the bottom 20% of FX majors in July. Going forward it will be interesting to watch the U.S. elections as trade relations continue to remain a key driver in the elections. Close to 80% of Mexico’s exports go to the U.S. leaving the political landscape in the U.S. a key driver for the peso. Despite the political risks, most analysts remain bullish on the MXN especially with the steady growth experienced in the U.S. Bias – bullish (stronger MXN)

  • August 9, 2016

    British Pound Outlook - August 2016

    As expected the BoE unleashed a round of stimulus at the BoE’s August 4th meeting and also released a revised set of forecasts that project much slower growth in the months ahead. GBP weakness appears set to continue on the back of policy divergence between the BoE and the Fed. The GBP is likely to fall further in the coming months possibly reaching the mid to low 1.20’s before stabilizing. Bias – bearish (weaker GBP)

  • August 9, 2016

    Japanese Yen Outlook - August 2016

    The Brexit vote and global uncertainty continue to be core drivers for the yen. Global uncertainties created by the Brexit vote and uneven global economic growth have pushed the yen higher and the USDJPY is again flirting with a break of the 100 level. Though the yen continues to remain at elevated levels, most analysts maintain a bearish view on the back of central bank policy divergence. The yen is likely to target the 105 level in the coming months. Bias – bearish (weaker JPY)

  • August 9, 2016

    Euro Outlook - August 2016

    Fundamentals in the Eurozone continue to remain weak and long-term inflation forecasts remain well under the 2% ECB threshold. Most analysts expect the EUR to weaken toward the June lows of 1.09 and possibly the Q1 lows of 1.07. While the Fed is likely to remain on the sidelines until later this year, the European Central Bank is poised to provide more stimulus. Economic and political risks continue to be stacked against the euro and most expect the euro to weaken over the coming months. Bias – bearish (weaker EUR)

  • August 9, 2016

    Canadian Dollar Outlook - August 2016

    The Canadian dollar has weakened in line with a pullback in crude and post-Brexit US dollar strength. Most analysts continue to expect the loonie to remain soft and weaken further as we move through Q3 in a leadup to a December Fed rate hike. The Canadian economy continues to sputter resulting in a continued divergence between Canada and the U.S. Analysts expect the loonie to retrace toward the 1.35 level in the coming months. Bias bearish – (weaker CAD)

  • August 9, 2016

    August 2016 - Monthly Currency Outlook

    The U.S. dollar has been one of the main beneficiaries of the Brexit vote and it doesn’t look like it is going to give up any of its recent gains. The rebound in economic data including stronger than expected employment growth leaves the U.S. set to establish its position atop the G7 economies for the remainder of the year. The greenback continues to remain one of the more compelling stories for the remainder of the year as markets price in a rate hike later this year.

  • August 9, 2016

    FX Summary Forecast - August 2016

    A one page summary of our two year forecasts of the majors and Canadian crosses

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